Canadian Refugees

February 19, 2017

Since the election of Donald Trump as President of the U.S., there have been many reports in the press about the number of refugees fleeing into Canada.  While it is true that refugee flight has surged since the election, the numbers were growing during the Obama administration because the U.S. has a reputation as unsympathetic to refugees (see ref below). It might suprise most readers that Canadian refugee claims are lower this year than they were 15-20 years ago.

According to the Canada Border Services Agency, land border crossings by refugees have more than doubled over the past several years. However, the 7,023 refugee claims in 2016 were less than the 8,000 claims made each year from 1999 to 2004. (CBC report)

Because there has been relatively little media coverage, the general population paid little attention. Now that the press has turned their attention to the problem (see Note below), it appears to many of us that the election of Donald Trump is entirely responsible for the exodus into Canada.  Media coverage, or the lack of it, influences our perception of reality. Psychologists refer to this as attentional bias.

Note: Most of the first six pages of results from a search of "how many illegal immigrants fled into canada in 2015" were recent.

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Other resources:
Toronto Star - Refugees coming into Quebec 2016

BBC - Refugees coming into Manitoba 2013-2016

Canada is 15th on the list of countries receiving refugees

A June 2015 Atlantic article with several dozen evocative photos of migrants around the world

2014 American Immigration Council (AIC) report on unaccompanied children from Central America

Election Notes

Cleaning up my desktop and found a few notes on the election...

Before the elction, Tamara Keith with NPR (she's been traveling with the Clinton campaign this election season) noted that months ago Hillary made the decision to run as a 3rd term of Obama in order to draw in the black vote.  Some of her team warned her that voters want change after two terms.  Only H.W. Bush had won a third term in 1988.

They suggested that she hit traditional Democratic themes/constituencies, appealing to advocates of pro-choice, teachers and labor unions.  It was up to her to make the call and she made it.  She did not visit Wisconsin after the Dem convention.  She did not visit Michigan enough.

Congresswoman Debbie Dingell (MI) warned the DNC that she was getting a bad feeling talking to her constituents and that they needed to schedule in more visits.  They didn't.  They decided to concentrate on Florida, VA, PA and rely on MI and WI to vote Dem as they always had. All campaigns have limited resources and, like an army, must decide where to depoy those resources. Working class whites felt abandoned.  Hillary didn't get enough of the black vote in the urban centers to offset the defection by working whites to Trump.  Many political strategists thought Trump's "rust belt strategy" was nonsense, doomed to fail.  They were wrong.  Trump's team was right.

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Financing

As of early January, Clinton's lead in the national vote count is close to 3 million.  However, we don't elect a President by popular vote.  Through the mechanism of the Electoral College, the states elect a President.

Clinton's lead, or margin, comes down to 5 counties.  Take away the margin, not the vote count, but the vote margin in four counties in New York City and one county in Los Angeles and Clinton would have lost by 1/2 million votes.

Obama conducted a broad campaign in all 50 states.  It took a lot of money and human energy, both Obama's and the thousands of volunteers who campaigned for him.  In the 2008 campaign, Obama spent $745 million.  In 2012, his campaign spent $875 million.  In 2016, Clinton spent $1.4 billion and still neglected several rust belt states that Obama canvassed.